Memory shortage to drive record smartphone decline in 2026
Feb 27th 2026
Analysts warn that AI-driven memory demand and rising memory prices will cut smartphone shipments sharply in 2026, forcing higher prices, longer upgrade cycles, and growth in the used-phone market.
- Counterpoint projects a 12% year-on-year fall in global smartphone shipments in 2026, the sharpest decline on record.
- IDC says memory constraints could shrink the global PC and smartphone markets by about 11% and 13% respectively.
- Big cloud and AI buyers are prioritizing memory allocation, leaving device makers with smaller chip supplies.
- Rising memory prices are pushing up component costs, which could force higher phone prices and longer replacement cycles.
- Lower-end models are at greatest risk as memory makes up a larger share of their cost, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned to cope.
- Analysts expect relief only if additional memory capacity or new suppliers emerge, with the earliest recovery likely in late 2027.