Study: US missed about 150,000 COVID deaths in 2020–21
Mar 18th 2026
A Science Advances analysis of CDC records finds about 150,000 to 160,000 likely unrecognized COVID deaths in 2020–21, with the undercount concentrated in marginalized communities.
- Researchers analyzed 5.7 million CDC death records for adults aged 25 and older from March 2020 through December 2021.
- A machine learning model trained on hospital deaths identified about 150,000 to 160,000 likely unrecognized COVID deaths on top of 840,251 reported deaths.
- The estimate implies roughly one overlooked COVID death for every five recorded ones, pushing the two-year U.S. toll close to one million.
- Unrecognized deaths were more likely among Hispanic people, to occur at home, and to involve people with lower income and less education.
- Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina showed the highest state-level ratios of unrecognized COVID deaths.
- Authors say fragmented, underresourced death reporting and unequal access to care helped drive the undercount.
Articles
- Death toll at start of Covid-19 pandemic likely higher than US count, study says www.theguardian.com
- COVID probably killed 150,000 more people in its first two years than official U.S. tolls show www.scientificamerican.com
- The US Grossly Undercounted Covid Deaths Early On, Updated Toll Shows gizmodo.com
- Nearly 156,000 more Americans may have died of COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic than officially reported. COVID-19 deaths were most likely to go unrecognized in southern states. The estimated number of COVID-19 deaths was 31% higher than officially reported in the West South Central region www.cidrap.umn.edu