Three scenarios for the US-Iran ceasefire

Insights

• Ceasefire announced April 7, 2026 ends more than a month of fighting after U.S. and Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation that disrupted global energy supplies.
• A former U.S. diplomat outlines three outcomes: a short collapse and return to war, a shaky de facto extension with minimal attacks, or negotiations that produce a broader peace deal.
• Pakistan has offered to mediate and could help the U.S., Iran and Israel use an initial pause to negotiate scope and guarantees.
• U.S. and Israeli demands focus on Iran abandoning nuclear weapons development and ending support for Hamas and Hezbollah, while Iran seeks security assurances and relief from sanctions.
• A lasting agreement will require sustained third-party brokerage, mutual trust that is now weak, and credible verification of Iranian commitments.