U.S. intelligence sees no evidence Iran will soon have missiles that can hit the United States, sources say
Feb 27th 2026
Multiple U.S. intelligence sources and a 2025 DIA assessment say Iran is likely years away from a militarily viable ICBM, contradicting President Trump’s State of the Union claim that Iran will soon have missiles able to strike the United States.
- U.S. intelligence sources say there is no current assessment showing Iran is close to fielding missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland.
- An unclassified 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment estimates Iran could take until about 2035 to develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile.
- Analysts say even with external help from countries like China or North Korea, Iran would likely need several more years, possibly around eight, to field an operational ICBM.
- Iran denies developing long range missiles and says it intentionally limits missile ranges to below 2,000 kilometers for defensive deterrence.
- The IAEA and U.S. agencies say Iran shut down a nuclear weapons development program in 2003, but Iran has continued uranium enrichment in recent years.
- Experts say Israeli airstrikes in 2023 and 2024 damaged key Iranian missile production sites, complicating Tehran's ballistic missile work.
- The White House defended the president’s warnings while some U.S. lawmakers described Iran as on a pathway to longer range capabilities.