Trump swings from ceasefire to new bombing threats in Iran

The Trump administration has presented a dizzying array of often contradictory messages over the past 24 hours regarding its military campaign against Iran, oscillating from declaring a ceasefire intact to threatening renewed bombing if Tehran does not agree to U.S. terms. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted Tuesday morning the ceasefire was holding and U.S. forces were protecting stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio said later that same day the military operation was "concluded" and that President Donald Trump preferred a diplomatic path. By Tuesday evening, Trump announced he was halting the effort to guide commercial ships through the strategic waterway to see if negotiations could produce a deal, only to threaten intensified bombing from Iran again on Wednesday morning if the country refused to accept U.S. conditions. The whiplash in messaging reflects both internal administration chaos and mounting external pressure. Elizabeth Dent, a former State Department and Pentagon official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the war was never properly "sold" to the American public because it happened too quickly, while Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group observed that Trump appears "both tired of this war and reluctant to continue investing his political capital into it." The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's oil shipments, and economic fallout is growing as fuel prices rise, with Republicans facing political pressure ahead of midterm elections. Meanwhile, NBC News reported that Trump's sudden decision to pause the mission, dubbed "Project Freedom," was driven in part by fury from Saudi Arabia, which temporarily suspended U.S. military access to Prince Sultan Airbase and restricted American aircraft from using Saudi airspace over lack of prior coordination. Markets rallied Thursday on cautious optimism that a breakthrough with Iran might be near, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 surging 5.7% to a record 62,915.87 and the S&P 500 climbing 1.5% to an all-time high. Oil prices stabilized after dropping nearly 8% the previous day, with Brent crude settling at $101.78 per barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that a prolonged closure of the strait could push oil to $150, and the International Energy Agency projected significant global supply disruptions. France moved its aircraft carrier strike group toward the Red Sea to prepare for a potential joint mission with Britain to secure shipping lanes once the threat ends, while the U.S. military shot at and disabled an Iranian oil tanker attempting to breach the blockade. Trump's planned trip to Beijing next week adds further urgency, as China remains the primary destination for oil that would flow through the reopened strait.