The Digester

Operation Epic Fury could cost US up to $210 billion, Penn Wharton model warns

Mar 3rd 2026

A Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis says the US-Israel Operation Epic Fury, launched Feb 28, could impose direct military and broader economic costs on the United States ranging from tens of billions to as much as $210 billion depending on duration and escalation.

  • Penn Wharton director Kent Smetters estimates direct US costs likely about $65 billion, with a range of $40 billion to $95 billion.
  • PWBM projects broader US economic losses of about $115 billion and a total upside risk up to $210 billion.
  • The estimates do not include a separate $179 billion IEEPA tariff cost that may be refunded after a Supreme Court ruling.
  • Pre-strike military repositioning cost about $630 million and at least four American troops were reported killed by day three of the campaign.
  • Public support is low, with one in four Americans backing the strikes, and the operation could last weeks or longer if it escalates.

Sources

fortune.com