The Digester
general

Trump's threats make a deal with Iran unlikely

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group says Iran seeks security guarantees and economic relief while U.S. and Israeli maximal demands and allied pressures make a negotiated end to the war unlikely.

Mar 25th 2026 · Iran

Insights

  • Iran's priority is regime survival, including guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not be able to attack it again.
  • Tehran insists on tangible sanctions relief and reconstruction funding rather than vague promises.
  • U.S. demands to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, hand over enriched uranium, and curb regional proxies remain maximal and unacceptable to Iran.
  • Gulf states are divided, with Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait favoring a halt and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain pushing to weaken Iran.
  • Israel benefits from a weakened Iran and has shaped U.S. pressure, complicating Washington's ability to negotiate a compromise.
  • Military escalation options such as strikes on energy infrastructure or invasion carry high regional risk and would likely deepen the conflict.

Sources