Trump's war on Iran risks long global economic and regional fallout

Insights

• Indirect talks between the US and Iran are reportedly underway while Tehran denies direct negotiations.
• Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil above $100 a barrel and threaten higher long-term energy costs.
• Analysts warn sustained disruption could slow global growth, raise recession risk and hit the UK economy particularly hard.
• US and Israeli strikes have caused internal displacement and infrastructure damage in Iran, creating long reconstruction times and unexploded ordnance hazards.
• The conflict has increased the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' influence and could prompt state fragmentation or civil war.
• A fragmented Iran would raise the risk of uncontrolled nuclear materials and broaden regional instability through proxy and militia activity.