Türkiye inflation cools to 30.9% in March despite Iran war energy pressure

Insights

• Annual consumer inflation fell to 30.9% in March from 31.5% in February.
• Monthly consumer prices rose 1.9% in March versus 2.96% in February and a forecast of 2.32%.
• Food inflation eased to 32.4% year on year, down 4.8 percentage points from last year.
• Largest annual increases were in education at 51.97%, housing at 42.06% and transport at 34.35%.
• Domestic producer price index rose 2.30% month on month and 28.08% year on year.
• Central Bank has halted easing, keeping the main rate at 37% and overnight near 40% while raising its year end inflation forecast to 15% to 21%.
• Government measures, including a sliding-scale fuel tax, have absorbed about two thirds of the oil price shock and limited pass-through to consumers.
• Geopolitical tensions after attacks on Iran have pushed energy prices higher and pose upward risks to inflation.