U.S. violent crime falls to multi-decade lows as decline spreads nationwide
FBI final 2024 data and preliminary 2025 figures show sharp drops in homicides and other major crimes across many cities despite police staffing shortfalls, with researchers pointing to federal pandemic-era local spending and prevention programs as a major factor.
- FBI data show the 2024 violent-crime rate fell to its lowest level since 1969, led by a nearly 15 percent drop in homicides.
- Preliminary 2025 counts analyzed by Jeff Asher indicate the national murder rate through October fell about 20 percent and other crimes also declined.
- Large police departments reported roughly 6 percent fewer officers going into 2025 than in early 2020, yet many cities recorded record-low homicide rates.
- Researchers and officials cite a mix of factors including focused policing strategies, technology, improved police-community trust, economic recovery, and more time spent online.
- Many experts point to ARPA-driven local investments in prevention, jobs, housing, parks, and community services as a broad explanation matching the scale of the decline.
- ARPA-funded public-safety programs were a small share of total ARPA spending but were complemented by larger investments in government operations, housing, and public space.
- Cities that expanded violence-interruption programs and youth jobs report steep local declines, while analysts warn gains may be fragile as one-time ARPA grants are exhausted.