US-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Hormuz Standoff Drags On

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding after nearly 40 days of conflict that erupted in late February, but diplomacy remains stalled with both sides signalling openness to talks while refusing to yield on core demands. Iran has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries around one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, allowing only limited shipping to pass in response to a US naval blockade on its ports. The disruption has pushed oil prices to multi-year highs and raised concerns over global supply chains and shipping costs, with both Washington and Tehran assembling international coalitions to reopen the vital waterway. Iran's leadership has framed the conflict's outcome as a strategic success, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei declaring that the United States suffered a "disgraceful defeat" and insisting Iran would safeguard its nuclear and missile capabilities. Iranian judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said Tehran remained open to negotiations but would not accept policy "imposition" under threat, while the United States, led by President Donald Trump, has insisted that Iran address US concerns over its nuclear programme before any easing of restrictions. Meanwhile, US Central Command has presented options for "short and powerful" strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure, and Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has warned that it may be necessary to act again against Iran. The conflict has also exposed a quieter vulnerability beyond the Strait of Hormuz: the undersea cables that form the digital backbone of the Middle East. A media outlet affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that damage to multiple cable systems would trigger a "digital catastrophe" and inflict multibillion-dollar losses on southern Persian Gulf countries, which rely on undersea cables for more than 90 per cent of their connectivity. The Red Sea hosts a dense network of approximately 15 to 17 major submarine cables carrying more than 90 per cent of data traffic between Europe and Asia. With both sides holding firm on their core demands, the most likely near-term scenario is continued stalemate: limited diplomacy, sustained economic pressure, and the persistent risk of sudden escalation.