Why voters feel the economy is worse than the data shows
Feb 23rd 2026
President Trump has been touting historic economic success as a top message ahead of the midterms, but objective indicators and voter sentiment diverge, creating political risk for the incumbent party.
- Trump has repeatedly called the U.S. economy the greatest ever and said his administration solved affordability problems.
- By the numbers the economy was reasonably strong last year with 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, and modest wage gains.
- Consumer sentiment sits about 20% below levels when Trump was sworn in, according to the University of Michigan survey.
- Behavioral bias makes people focus on and remember bad economic news more than good news, amplifying pain from past shocks.
- Prices for basic goods like beef, dairy, coffee, shoes and clothing rose by double-digit percentages last year while gasoline and propane fell, a mix that leaves many feeling worse off.
- With the economy the top issue 37 weeks before the midterms, bold claims that it is booming are unlikely to sway voters who say they still feel economic pain, and history suggests that acknowledging that pain is politically powerful.