WMO issues urgent El Niño warning with 80% probability

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an urgent warning that El Niño is expected to arrive within months, with an 80% probability of forming between June and August and a 90% chance of persisting until at least November 2026. The phenomenon, which raises global temperatures by warming surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, could be at least moderate in strength but possibly strong, according to the UN agency's latest projections released this week. Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific have been rising since mid-May, with subsurface temperatures running more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, indicating the development of El Niño conditions. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the impending El Niño as "the fire of a warming world" being fed with more fuel, warning that impacts will hit harder, travel farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The most recent El Niño episode, which occurred between 2023 and 2024, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to unprecedented global temperatures. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for preparedness, stating that governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors must take precautions well in advance. The agency noted that although climate change does not increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events themselves, it amplifies their effects by providing more energy and moisture for extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves and intense rainfall. The regional impacts of El Niño vary significantly: it typically brings heavier rainfall to parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while causing drier conditions in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia. The warm waters can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while hindering their formation in the Atlantic basin. While scientists have used the term "super El Niño" in anticipation of a particularly intense event, the WMO clarified this falls outside official classification systems. Some researchers have suggested 2026 could become the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024, as global temperatures tend to be most pronounced during the second year of an El Niño episode.