Xi invokes Thucydides' Trap in warning to Trump on China-US ties

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked the historical concept of the "Thucydides' Trap" during his summit with US President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday (May 14), warning that conflict could erupt as China rises to challenge American dominance. Xi asked whether the world's two largest economies could "establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers" that avoids the pattern of war historically seen when rising powers threaten established ones. The leaders announced they had agreed to build a Sino-US relationship based on "constructive strategic stability" to guide ties for the next three years and beyond. The term, popularized by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison in his 2017 book "Destined for War," describes the danger identified by ancient Greek historian Thucydides when examining the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. Allison, who briefed Xi on the concept in 2015, told CNA that Xi understands the implications "deeply" and noted that Trump also appears to appreciate the risks. Of the 16 historical cases over the past 500 years where a rising power challenged a dominant one, 12 ended in war, Allison said. "It would obviously be wrong to say war is inevitable. It would not be wrong to say war is likely," he added. Chinese political observer Zhao Minghao from Fudan University offered a more cautious assessment, describing the new formula as "aspirational" but not reflective of current reality. "The real test is how the two powers find ways to cooperate constructively within an inherently competitive relationship," he said, noting that major disagreements such as US military deployment in the Asia-Pacific will persist. He suggested practical cooperation could be pursued in areas like non-sensitive trade and AI safety. Allison contrasted the current trajectory with the Cold War, where mutual recognition of nuclear annihilation capability led to détente rather than direct conflict, suggesting competition itself is not necessarily dangerous if both systems can coexist without escalating rivalry into military confrontation.